A Risk Management Case Study

In order to demonstrate risk management can be usefully applied to small businesses, the following example shows how even the suggestion of an intended government intervention can have an devastating effect on a whole business sector.

The Impact of the Proposed 2035 Gas Boiler Ban and the Importance of Risk Management

Introduction

The gas boiler sector faced a major challenge when the previous Conservative government announced its intention to prohibit the sale of new gas boilers by 2035. This declaration cast doubt over the industry's future, and, despite a subsequent change of government, the persistent uncertainty regarding whether the ban would be enforced proved equally damaging as the prospect of a definite end date for new boiler sales.

The Role of Risk Management in the Gas Boiler Sector

This situation immediately underscored the critical importance of risk management, not just for large corporations but also for small businesses. The move away from fossil-fuel-based central heating systems was a foreseeable consequence of the increasing national debate on environmental protection and global warming. Had those affected by the potential ban utilised risk management tools to recognise that a shift away from gas boilers was inevitable, rather than speculative, they might have been better equipped to mitigate the impact once the announcement was made.

Industry Response and Strategic Choices

Even with prior awareness of the proposed 2035 deadline, those employed in the gas boiler sector are left grappling with difficult decisions about their future over the next decade. Many may opt to diversify and exit the industry as soon as possible. Conversely, there is a case for some firms to remain, as crises often create opportunities. As operators leave the market, those who stay could benefit from increased demand for servicing and maintenance, as households with gas central heating will continue to require such support for many years after 2035.

Workforce and Training Implications

The sector also faces significant implications for workforce development. It is unlikely that young people will choose to train as gas boiler engineers, knowing that demand for their skills will diminish after 2035. Consequently, colleges are likely to discontinue vocational training courses for gas boiler engineers, if they have not already done so. Existing engineers who are set to retire within the next fifteen years can expect to maintain a comfortable livelihood, as they will be among a shrinking pool of skilled workers needed to serve an undiminished client base. In contrast, younger engineers may decide to retrain in other fields that offer greater long-term security.

Manufacturing, Supply, and Domestic Consequences

The 2035 ban represents a severe blow to the future prospects of UK gas boiler manufacturers. The duration of ongoing production will depend on how swiftly these companies can diversify their offerings. This transition suggests there may be shortages of new gas boilers and spare parts well before the 2035 deadline. A lack of available spare parts could create a domestic heating crisis, leaving homeowners unable to repair failed boiler systems and struggling to afford alternative heating solutions.

Risk Management and Future Planning

Risk management tools remain essential for assessing all the factors that will determine the most effective strategies to address the threat posed by the proposed 2035 ban. Planning must also account for the possibility that the ban will not be implemented. Political enthusiasm for green policies has waned somewhat in the past year, leading to the September 2025 announcement that the current administration would not proceed with legislation for the 2035 ban. While this development offers a welcome reprieve for the sector, it could easily be reversed if political priorities shift back towards environmental protection. Caution remains advisable. Those in the gas boiler sector must recognise that their market and livelihoods are subject to political change and may have a limited future.

The Case Study in Action

Picking over the implications of the 2035 ban provides plenty of scope to apply established risk management tools and concepts to make some sense of a very complex problem. If you look rationally and systematically at the issues involved, a range of possible strategies emerge that can help those affected by a crisis survive and continue to prosper after the event.

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